Robust Synchronisation for Federated Learning in The Face of Correlated Device Failure

Probabilistic Synchronous Parallel (PSP) is a technique in distributed learning systems to reduce synchronization bottlenecks by sampling a subset of participating nodes per round. In Federated Learning (FL), where edge devices are often unreliable due to factors including mobility, power constraints, and user activity, PSP helps improve system throughput. However, PSP has a key limitation: it assumes device behavior is static and different devices are independent. This can lead to unfair distributed synchronization, due to highly available nodes dominating training while those that are often unavailable rarely participate and so their data may be missed. If both data distribution and node availability are simultaneously correlated with the device, then both PSP and standard FL algorithms will suffer from persistent under-representation of certain classes or groups resulting in inefficient or ineffective learning of certain features. We introduce Availability-Weighted PSP (AW-PSP), an extension to PSP that addresses the issue of co-correlation of unfair sampling and data availability by dynamically adjusting node sampling probabilities using real-time availability predictions, historical behavior, and failure correlation metrics. A Markov-based availability predictor distinguishes transient \emph{vs} chronic failures, while a Distributed Hash Table (DHT) layer decentralizes metadata, including latency, freshness, and utility scores. We implement AW-PSP and trace-driven evalua