The Beginning of Scarcity in AI

<p>For the first time since the 2000s, technology companies are confronting the limits of their supply chain.</p> <p>GPU rental prices for Nvidia&rsquo;s Blackwell chips hit $4.08 per hour this week, up 48% from $2.75 just two months ago.<sup id="fnref:1"><a class="footnote-ref" href="https://tomtunguz.com/index.xml#fn:1">1</a></sup> CoreWeave raised prices 20% &amp; extended minimum contracts from one year to three.<sup id="fnref1:1"><a class="footnote-ref" href="https://tomtunguz.com/index.xml#fn:1">1</a></sup></p> <blockquote> <p>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re making some very tough trades at the moment on things we&rsquo;re not pursuing because we don&rsquo;t have enough compute.&rdquo; - Sarah Friar, OpenAI CFO<sup id="fnref2:1"><a class="footnote-ref" href="https://tomtunguz.com/index.xml#fn:1">1</a></sup></p> </blockquote> <p>This scarcity is already reshaping access. Anthropic has limited its newest model to roughly forty organizations.<sup id="fnref:2"><a class="footnote-ref" href="https://tomtunguz.com/index.xml#fn:2">2</a></sup> Access to the bleeding edge is becoming a gated privilege, for both capacity &amp; security.</p> <p><!--[if mso | IE]> <table role="presentation" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="560" align="center" style="margin:0 auto;"><tr><td style="padding:0;"> <![endif]--> <img alt="B200 GPU Prices March 2026" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dzawgnnlr/image/upload/w_840,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto/mmvcntlshse7hk354pjo" style="display: block; width: 100%; height: auto; border: 0; text-decoration: none;" width="560" /> <!--[if mso | IE]> </td></tr></table> <![endif]--></p> <p>If the largest AI companies are having problems, startups face a tougher proposition. Five hallmarks define this era :</p> <ul> <li><strong>Relationship Based Selling</strong> : State-of-the-art models may no longer be open to everyone as providers limit access to their most profitable or strategic customers.</li> <li><strong>AI to the Highest Bidder</strong> : Even when t